Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.125261 0.140703 0.157364 0.176688 0.198496 0.222364 0.250488
2025-12-07 0.094116 0.113014 0.134849 0.161981 0.194848 0.233450 0.282338
2025-12-14 0.074276 0.094716 0.119836 0.153068 0.196014 0.249827 0.322672
2025-12-21 0.059889 0.080740 0.107879 0.145943 0.198205 0.267814 0.368181
2025-12-28 0.051131 0.072639 0.102187 0.145989 0.209701 0.299660 0.437485
2026-01-04 0.042992 0.064120 0.094644 0.142301 0.215482 0.324657 0.501835
2026-01-11 0.037121 0.057961 0.089537 0.141320 0.225050 0.356719 0.582564
2026-01-18 0.032749 0.053399 0.086128 0.142373 0.237915 0.395935 0.681827
2026-01-25 0.027669 0.046943 0.078779 0.135901 0.237458 0.413486 0.748194
2026-02-01 0.023330 0.041076 0.071543 0.128466 0.234109 0.425508 0.807029
2026-02-08 0.020210 0.036863 0.066529 0.124149 0.235596 0.446326 0.886045
2026-02-15 0.017547 0.033090 0.061759 0.119526 0.235727 0.464574 0.963448
2026-02-22 0.015976 0.031194 0.060307 0.121275 0.249089 0.511866 1.111922
2026-03-01 0.013906 0.028036 0.055992 0.116670 0.248849 0.531712 1.206297
2026-03-08 0.012362 0.025714 0.053012 0.114367 0.253148 0.562082 1.331119
2026-03-15 0.011036 0.023652 0.050271 0.112148 0.257291 0.592961 1.464124
2026-03-22 0.010264 0.022664 0.049663 0.114575 0.272498 0.652040 1.679460
2026-03-29 0.009316 0.021151 0.047687 0.113532 0.279311 0.692423 1.856154
2026-04-05 0.008594 0.020051 0.046490 0.114164 0.290407 0.745604 2.079594
2026-04-12 0.008031 0.019245 0.045863 0.116108 0.305245 0.811343 2.353800
2026-04-19 0.007160 0.017572 0.042922 0.111685 0.302477 0.829598 2.494277
2026-04-26 0.006336 0.015906 0.039770 0.106214 0.295917 0.836260 2.601723
2026-05-03 0.005725 0.014699 0.037618 0.103112 0.295528 0.860621 2.771184